United States - China Geopolitics: Panama Canal (2015-2025) Implications for Maritime Security in the American Continent

Abstract

The Panama Canal, a historic chokepoint of global trade, has become a stage for growing geopolitical competition between the United States and China in the projection of strategic influence. Although this rivalry has been widely studied, a gap remains in the literature regarding its concrete effects on maritime security in the Americas. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the geopolitical strategies of both actors in the Canal during the period 2015–2025. It employs a qualitative, explanatory methodology based on the systematic examination of official strategic documents. The theoretical framework is grounded in realism, incorporating Rimland theory and the concept of smart power to interpret strategic interaction. The findings reveal an asymmetry: a gradual, proactive geoeconomic strategy by China, contrasted with a U.S. response focused on containment, characterized as reactive and coercive. This gives rise to a “geopolitical re-contestation” of the Canal, redefining it as a contested space. This dynamic has reshaped regional maritime security, driving doctrinal changes, the securitization of infrastructure, and increased tensions over state sovereignty.