Análisis de la influencia oscilación Madden and Julian (OMJ) en el comportamiento océano-atmosférico de la Cuenca Colombia durante el periodo 2010-2019
Keywords:
Variabilidad intraestacional, Oscilación Madden-Julian, Cuenca Colombia, Análisis espectral, Interacción océano-atmósfera, Anomalías pentadalesAbstract
Atmospheric variables exhibit fluctuations influenced by climate variability phenomena across different temporal scales. In Colombia, research has primarily focused on interannual events such as ENSO (Yepes & Poveda, 2012; Cuadros, 2011), while the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been less explored, despite its growing international recognition as a modulator of regional weather patterns. This study analyzes the influence of the MJO on ocean-atmosphere behavior in the Colombian Basin between 2010 and 2019. The research included a seasonal climate characterization and an intraseasonal variability analysis of air temperature (Ta), precipitation (Pt), sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric pressure (Pa), using daily global reanalysis series, pentadal anomalies, and spectral analyses to identify high-frequency cycles associated with the MJO. The characterization revealed dry seasons at the beginning and end of the year in Ta and Pt, transitional periods in April-May, and slight cooling between June and September, associated with the strengthening of trade winds and the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Spectral analysis identified MJO-related cycles explaining up to 60% of the variance, although with low spectral density. Wavelet analysis showed that during the MJO's suppressed phases, Ta, Pt, and SST decrease while Pa increases; in convective phases, the opposite occurs, indicating inverse or direct relationships between the MJO and these variables. It is concluded that although the MJO is not a dominant factor in the climate variability of the Colombian Basin, it acts as a regional modulator, fostering favorable conditions for the occurrence of other oscillations
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